At least 6 killed as Shiites storm US Consulate in Pakistan over killing of Iran's supreme leader

KARACHI, Pakistan (AP) — At least six people were killed and about a dozen were wounded in violent clashes with police and paramilitary forces Sunday after hundreds of protesters stormed the U.S. Consulate in the Pakistani port city of Karachi, authorities said.

APTOPIX Pakistan Iran US Israel

The violence came hours after the United States and Israel attacked Iran and killed the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Police and officials at a hospital in Karachi said at least eight people were also wounded in the clashes.

Summaiya Syed Tariq, a police surgeon at the city's main government hospital, confirmed that six bodies and multiple injured people were brought to the facility. Karachi is the capital of southern Sindh province and Pakistan's largest city.

Senior police official Irfan Baloch said protesters briefly attacked the perimeter of the U.S. Consulate but were later dispersed. "The situation is now fully under our control," Baloch said.

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He dismissed as baseless reports that any part of the consulate building was set on fire. However, he said protesters torched a nearby police post and smashed windows of the consulate before security forces arrived and regained control.

Witnesses said dozens of Shiite protesters remained gathered about a kilometer (half a mile) from the consulate, urging others to join them. Shiites make up roughly 15% of Pakistan's population of about 250 million and represent one of the largest Shiite communities in the world. They have frequently staged anti-Israel and anti-U.S. rallies in the past, though clashes of this scale are rare.

Shiites also held a rally near the U.S. Consulate in Lahore, the capital of eastern Punjab province, police said. Faisal Kamran, a senior police official, said demonstrators tried to protest outside the consulate but were not allowed. Police dispersed the crowd when they tried to march toward the building, he said.

Associated Press writers Babar Dogar in Lahore, Pakistan, and Asim Tanveer in Multan, Pakistan, contributed to this story.

byVincento Seyarto

in

March 01, 2026

At least 6 killed as Shiites storm US Consulate in Pakistan over killing of Iran's supreme leader

KARACHI, Pakistan (AP) — At least six people were killed and about a dozen were wounded in violent clashes with police an...

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Protests break out in Pakistan, Iraq over Khamenei's death

KARACHI, Pakistan, March 1 (Reuters) - Pakistani police fired tear gas on Sunday to scatter protesters who breached the outer wall ‌of the U.S. consulate in the southern city of Karachi ‌following news of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali ​Khamenei.

Supporters of Iraqi Shi'ite armed groups gather after the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Baghdad

Pro-Iranian protesters also gathered outside the Green Zone in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, where the U.S. Embassy is located.

In Karachi, protesters had been pushed back from the consulate, a spokesman for the local government said. A ‌Reuters reporter heard sounds ⁠of gunfire and video footage from the scenes showed burning vehicles outside the consulate's main gate.

No casualties were reported ⁠in the clashes. U.S. diplomats in the consulate were not immediately available for comment.

Large protests also broke out in other parts of Pakistan.

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Protesters set ​fire to ​a United Nations office building in ​Pakistan's northern city of Skardu, ‌in the normally peaceful Shia-majority Gilgit Baltistan region known for its Himalayan peaks popular with tourists.

"A large number of protesters have gathered outside the UN office in GB and burned down the building," local government spokesperson Shabbir Mir told Reuters, adding no casualties had been reported.

Crowds ‌had gathered earlier in the day to ​protest Khamenei's death.

In the central city of ​Lahore, hundreds of protesters gathered ​outside the U.S. consulate but there were no reports ‌of violence.

"Some of the protestors tried ​to damage the ​security gate, hundreds of yards away for the Consulate, however, police stopped them without use of force," Aqeel Raza, an eyewitness, ​told Reuters.

(Reporting by Akhtar ‌Soomro and Ariba Shahid in Karachi, Mushtaq Ali in Peshawar ​and Mubasher Bukhari in Lahore; Writing by Saad Sayeed; Editing ​by Clarence Fernandez and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

byVincento Seyarto

in

March 01, 2026

Protests break out in Pakistan, Iraq over Khamenei's death

KARACHI, Pakistan, March 1 (Reuters) - Pakistani police fired tear gas on Sunday to scatter protesters who breached the o...

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OPEC+ debates oil output boost as US war on Iran disrupts shipments

By Olesya Astakhova, Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON/MOSCOW, March 1 (Reuters) - OPEC+ will consider a larger-than-expected oil output increase on Sunday, two OPEC+ sources said after ‌the U.S.-Israeli war on OPEC+ member Iran and Tehran's retaliation led to shipment ‌disruptions in the Middle East.

OPEC+ has a history of raising oil output to cushion disruptions but analysts said the ​group currently has very little spare capacity to meaningfully add to supply, except for its leader Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Riyadh has been raising oil production and exports in recent weeks in preparation for U.S. strikes on Iran, sources have told Reuters.

Oil, gas and other shipments ‌from the Middle East via the ⁠Strait of Hormuz have come to a halt since Saturday after shipowners received a warning from Iran saying the area was closed for navigation.

OPEC+ ⁠will debate a production hike of 411,000 barrels per day or more at a meeting on Sunday, sources told Reuters, larger than the original expectations of 137,000 bpd.

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Oil prices jumped on Friday ​to $73 per ​barrel, the highest level since July, on fears ​of a wider conflict in the ‌Middle East and supply disruptions through Hormuz, the world's most important oil route amounting to over 20% of global oil transit.

Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to over $100 per barrel, said veteran OPEC analyst Helima Croft from RBC. Analysts from Barclays also said prices could rise to $100.

Croft said the market impact ‌from any large OPEC output increase will be limited ​due to a lack of actual production capabilities outside ​Saudi Arabia.

The meeting on Sunday will ​start at 1100 GMT and will involve only eight members of OPEC+ - ‌Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, ​Iraq, Algeria and Oman. ​OPEC+ groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia but most production changes in the past years have been done by the eight members.

The ​eight members raised production quotas ‌by about 2.9 million bpd from April through December 2025, roughly 3% of ​global demand, before pausing increases for January to March 2026 due to seasonal ​weakness.

(Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

byVincento Seyarto

in

March 01, 2026

OPEC+ debates oil output boost as US war on Iran disrupts shipments

By Olesya Astakhova, Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar LONDON/MOSCOW, March 1 (Reuters) - OPEC+ will consider a la...

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What we know about the death of Iranian supreme leader Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's hardline supreme leader who ruled the country for almost four decades, was killed in Saturday's joint US-Israeli strikes, Iranian state media confirmed Sunday, prompting celebration among Iranians who opposed his rule and fury from pro-regime loyalists.

An Iranian TV broadcaster broke down in tears as he confirmed Khamenei had reached "martyrdom" in a strike that Fars New Agency said hit his compound in Tehran as he was "carrying out his duties."

The death of the cleric who repressed millions as he sought to exert Iran's influence in the Middle East and beyond appears likely to plunge the Islamic Republic into the most serious crisis since its establishment, with no clear leader to take his place.

One of Iran's most powerful figures, Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, signaled Iran's defiance on Sunday, vowing to "stab" America in the heart in retaliation.

Here's what we know:

How did he die?

Satellite images from Airbusshowedblack smoke rising from the supreme leader's compound in the capital, Tehran, on Saturday. The images appeared to show that several buildings in the compound had been severely damaged by strikes.

Initially, Iran's Foreign Ministry hadinsistedthat Khamenei was "safe and sound," even as his death was announced by both US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

"There are many signs" that Iran's supreme leader is "no longer with us," Netanyahu had said Saturday evening, without elaborating.

Two Israeli sources told CNN that the strikes targeted senior figures, including Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and the armed forces' chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi.

Trump said one of the aims of the joint US-Israeli attack was regime change, and he called on the Iranian people to rise up against the government.

However, it was unclear whether such change would result from Khamenei's death, which appeared likely to usher in hard-line rule by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, experts said.

What led to this?

Khamenei's death comes at a time when Iran is arguably at its weakest since he took power in the 1989. Decades of Western sanctions had already left the country isolated and economically battered before US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 dealt his rule a severe blow.

Just six months later, protests that began over economic grievances quickly turned political, spreading across all 31 of the country's provinces within weeks. The regime responded with a brutal crackdown, killing thousands of protesters and prompting a global outcry, including a threat of intervention from the Trump administration.

That intervention came on Saturday, when Trump said the US military was undertaking a "massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests."

Who could replace Khamenei?

Larijani, who been a key adviser to Khamenei, said a temporary leadership structure comprising of the president, the head of the judiciary would soon be in place.

Larijani said Iran had assured leaders in the region that it was not after war with them, but would continue to targeted American bases in Middle Eastern countries.

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"It must be made clear once and for all that the Americans cannot bully the Iranian nation," he said.

According to Iran's constitution, an interim three-member council — consisting of the president, the head of the judiciary and a jurist of the country's Guardian Council — would be tasked with carrying out the duties of the leader, until an Assembly of Experts appointed a new supreme leader, according to theMiddle East Institute.

Who could lead Iran next remains a mystery, even to those who have removed him. In January, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that "no one knows" who would take over if Khamenei was removed.

Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran, said any attempt to appoint a successor to Khamenei "is doomed to fail from the outset."

How are Iranians reacting?

Cheering could be heard in Tehran as news spread about Khamenei's demise, but as morning broke on Sunday, thousands of people gathered in the capital to wave flags and chant "Death to America."

For protesters who fought for regime change in protests across the country this January, prompting a brutal crackdown, Khamenei needed to go.

The regime employed unprecedented levels of violence, with officials framing the demonstrations as a continuation of an Israeli-American conspiracy against the Islamic Republic.

The protests were the biggest since thedeath of 22-year-old Mahsa Aminiwhile in the custody of the religious police in 2022.

In one video obtained by CNN from an eyewitness in Tehran on Saturday as reports of Khamenei's death circulated, the voices of two women can be heard chanting, "Death to the Islamic Republic" and "Long Live the shah," in Farsi, before cheers and whistles erupt.

In a similar video, cheers are heard echoing across a residential neighborhood in the city. In cities around the world, members of the Iranian community took to the streets to celebrate a new era in Iran.

How could this impact the wider Middle East?

Khamenei's death has the potential to trigger the greatest shift in regional dynamics since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, after which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a sweeping campaign to eliminate actors hostile to his country across the Middle East — including Iran and its regional proxies.

It's the second time in less than a century that the United States has acted to remove an Iranian leader from power. In 1953, Mohammad Mossadegh, a secular, democratically elected prime minister, was overthrown in an Iranian army coup backed by the CIA and British intelligence after he nationalized the country's oil industry.

That event restored Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to the throne and, after the monarch was deposed in the 1979 Islamic revolution, played a central role in the Islamic Republic's anti-US narrative. It regularly cited by Khamenei as a symbol of US imperialism and the reason for his distrust of the West.

Iran is home to a diverse population of more than 90 million, including Persians, Azeris, Arabs, Baloch and Kurds. Under Khamenei's decades-long rule, the Islamic Republic largely managed to contain civil and ethnic unrest.

But with no clear successor, his death would raise serious concerns about the stability of Iran, as well as the wider region, with potential consequences for the global economy.

For more CNN news and newsletters create an account atCNN.com

byVincento Seyarto

in

March 01, 2026

What we know about the death of Iranian supreme leader Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's hardline supreme leader who ruled the country for almost four decades, was killed in S...

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More strikes aimed at Iran after Khamenei's death, Trump issues new warning

By Alexander Cornwell, Sarah El Safty, Yomna Ehab and Elwely Elwelly

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes

TEL AVIV/DUBAI, March 1 (Reuters) - Israel said on Sunday it launched another wave of attacks on Iran, as Iranians grappled with uncertainty after the killing of their supreme leader in U.S. and Israeli strikes, while President Donald Trump warned of consequences for retaliation.

Hours after both nations said an air strike killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the military ‌campaign to overthrow the government of the Islamic Republic, its state media confirmed the 86-year-old leader's death on Saturday.

In another blow for Iran's leaders, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi was killed in strikes, broadcaster ‌Iran TV said.

The United States will hit Iran "with a force that has never been seen before," Trump warned on Sunday, if the Middle East nation hit back after the strikes.

"Iran just stated that they are going to hit very hard today, harder than they have ever been hit before," Trump ​said in a post on Truth Social.

He added, "THEY BETTER NOT DO THAT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IF THEY DO, WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE!"

Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani, said a temporary leadership council would be set up.

He accused the United States and Israel of trying to plunder and disintegrate Iran and warned "secessionist groups" of a harsh response if they attempt action, state television said.

In remarks directed at Trump and his close ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said they had crossed a red line and would "pay for it".

A source briefed on the Israeli campaign told Reuters there had been no change in military strategy after the killing of Khamenei and that strikes would continue to target ‌Iranian officials and missile infrastructure.

SECOND DAY OF LOUD BLASTS HEARD

Several loud blasts were heard ⁠for a second day on Sunday in regional business hub Dubai and over Qatar's capital of Doha, witnesses said, after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on the neighbouring Gulf states.

Puffs of white smoke from missile interceptions were glimpsed in the skies over Dubai, while billows of dark smoke rose over its port of Jebel Ali, one of the busiest in the Middle East.

Iran, which has ⁠said it would target U.S. bases if attacked, hit a range of other targets, keeping the major oil-producing Gulf on edge.

Air raid sirens sounded repeatedly across Israel early on Sunday, with a series of explosions heard in Tel Aviv as Israel's sophisticated air defense system sought to intercept the latest Iranian offensive.

There was no immediate report of damage or injuries.

Trump said the air strikes aimed to end a decades-long threat from Iran and ensure it could not develop a nuclear weapon.

He sought to justify a risky gambit that seemed to ​contradict ​his professed opposition to American involvement in complex overseas conflicts.

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"This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great ​Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated ‌by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty THUGS," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump and Netanyahu told Iranians to pursue a rare chance to topple their clerical leaders.

LEADERS ALREADY FACED PRESSURE ON SEVERAL FRONTS

The leadership had already been under pressure from an economy hammered by sanctions, protesters who proved ready again to take to the streets despite fierce crackdowns and regional proxies severely weakened by Israeli attacks.

Israel and the United States timed the attacks to coincide with a meeting of Khamenei and his top aides, said two U.S. sources and a U.S. official familiar with the matter.

Khamenei was working in his office at the time of Saturday's attack, state media said. It also killed his daughter, grandchild, daughter-in-law and son-in-law.

Experts said that while the deaths of Khamenei and other Iranian leaders would deal the country a major blow, it would not necessarily spell the end of Iran's entrenched clerical rule or the sway of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps over the population.

Trump evoked the 1979 ‌storming of the U.S. embassy in Tehran, when Iranian student activists in coordination with radical clerics took 52 American hostage for 444 days, demanding ​the extradition of the deposed Shah from the United States.

Israel's military said it targeted Iran's ballistic missile and air defense systems with strikes on ​Sunday morning.

Iran's armed forces would soon retaliate again with their biggest offensive against U.S. bases and Israel, the ​Revolutionary Guards vowed in a statement on Sunday.

Iran responded to Saturday's initial attacks by launching hundreds of missiles and drones targeting U.S. troops and cities in Israel and Arab countries allied with ‌Washington, prompting widespread cancellations of Middle East flights.

The Pentagon said there were no U.S. deaths ​or injuries.

ONE OF GLOBAL AVIATION'S WORST DISRUPTIONS

Major Middle Eastern airports, including ​Dubai, the world's busiest international travel hub, were shut on Saturday after Iran's missile retaliation unleashed one of global aviation's most severe disruptions in years.

Dubai's landmark Burj Al Arab hotel and the airport, which handles more than 1,000 flights a day, were damaged in an overnight attack on sites across the Arab Gulf states that also hit airports in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait.

On Saturday, Tehran warned that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, ​the narrow conduit for about a fifth of global oil consumption, raising expectations of a ‌sharp jump in oil prices.

The OPEC+ grouping of major oil producers is set to meet on Sunday and may consider a larger-than-planned output increase as several tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses suspended ​energy shipments through the Strait.

After Israel pounded Iran in a 12-day air war in June, joined by the United States, both warned they would strike again if Tehran persisted with nuclear and ballistic missile ​programs.

(Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Simon Lewis, Clarence Fernandez and Michael Georgy; Editing by Sergio Non and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

byVincento Seyarto

in

March 01, 2026

More strikes aimed at Iran after Khamenei's death, Trump issues new warning

By Alexander Cornwell, Sarah El Safty, Yomna Ehab and Elwely Elwelly Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah ...

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Middle East airports closed and thousands of travelers stranded after attack on Iran

LONDON (AP) — Theattack on Iranby the United States and Israel disrupted flights across the Middle East and beyond Saturday as countries around the region closed their airspace and key airports that connect Europe, Africa and the West to Asia were directly hit by strikes.

Lebanon Israel Iran US

Airports across the Middle East remained closed Sunday as the conflict moved into its second day. Emirates Airlines suspended all flights to and from Dubai until at least Sunday afternoon. The Qatar airport was closed until at least Monday morning, according to Qatar Airways. Israeli airspace also remained closed Sunday.

The closures have stranded tens of thousands of travelers around the world.

Hundreds of thousands of travelers were either stranded or diverted to other airports Saturday after Israel, Qatar, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain closed their airspace. There also was no flight activity over the United Arab Emirates, flight tracking website FlightRadar24 said, after the government there announced a "temporary and partial closure" of its airspace.

That led to the closure of key hub airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, and the cancellation of more than 1,800 flights by major Middle Eastern airlines. The three major airlines that operate at those airports — Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad — typically have about 90,000 passengers per day crossing through those hubs and even more travelers headed to destinations in the Middle East, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.

Two airports in the United Arab Emirates reported incidents as the government there condemned what it called a "blatant attack involving Iranian ballistic missiles" on Saturday.

Officials at Dubai International Airport — the largest in the United Arab Emirates and one of thebusiest in the world— said four people were injured, while Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi said that one person was killed and seven others were injured in a drone strike. Strikes were also reported at Kuwait International Airport.

Though Iran did not publicly claim responsibility, the scope of retaliatory strikes that Gulf nations attributed to Iran extended beyond the American bases that it previously said it would target.

"For travelers, there's no way to sugarcoat this," said Henry Harteveldt, an airline industry analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group. "You should prepare for delays or cancellations for the next few days as these attacks evolve and hopefully end."

Airlines that are crossing the Middle East will have to reroute flights around the conflict with many flights headed south over Saudi Arabia. That will add hours to those flights and consume additional fuel, adding to the costs airlines will have to absorb. So ticket prices could quickly start to increase if the conflict lingers.

The added flights will also put pressure on air traffic controllers in Saudi Arabia who might have to slow traffic to make sure they can handle it safely. And the countries that closed their airspace will miss out on the overflight fees airlines pay for crossing overhead.

But Mike McCormick, who used to oversee air traffic control for the Federal Aviation Administration before he retired and is now a professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, said over the next few days these countries might be able to reopen parts of their airspace once American and Israeli officials share with the airlines where military flights are operating and how capable Iran remains at firing missiles.

"Those countries then will be able to go through and say, okay, we can reopen this portion of our space but we'll keep this portion of our airspace closed," McCormick said. "So I think what we'll see in the next 24 to 36 hours how the use of airspace evolves as the kinetic activity gets more well defined and as the capability of Iran to actually shoot missiles and create additional risk is diminished due to the attacks."

But it is unclear how long the disruption to flight operations could last. For comparison, the Israeli and U.S. attack on Iran in June 2025lasted 12 days.

'No one knows'

The situation was changing quickly and airlines urged passengers to check their flight status online before heading to the airport.

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Some airlines issued waivers to affected travelers that will allow them to rebook their flight plans without paying extra fees or higher fares.

Jonathan Escott and his fiance had arrived at the airport in Newcastle, England, on Saturday only to find out that his direct flight to Dubai on Emirates airline was canceled, leaving everyone on the flight stuck there.

Escott left to go back to where he was staying with family, about an hour from the airport, but has no idea when he may be able to travel.

"No one knows," Escott said. "No one really knows what's going on with the conflict, really. Not Emirates, Emirates don't have a clue. No one has a clue."

At least 145 planes that were en route to cities like Tel Aviv and Dubai early Saturday were diverted to airports in cities like Athens, Istanbul or Rome, according to FlightAware. Others turned around and returned to where they took off from. One plane spent nearly 15 hours in the air after leaving Philadelphia and getting all the way to Spain before turning around and returning to where it started.

Numerous airlines canceled international flights to Dubai through the weekend, as India's civil aviation agency designated much of the Middle East — including skies above Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon — as a high-security risk zone at all altitudes.

Air India canceled all flights to Mideast destinations. Turkish Airlines said flights to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Jordan were suspended until Monday and flights to Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Oman were suspended.

The airline said additional cancellations may be announced, and many other airlines were suspending flights into the region through the weekend.

Travelers advised to be 'very creative'

U.S.-based Delta Air Lines and United Airlines suspended flights to Tel Aviv at least through the weekend. Dutch airline KLM had already announced earlier in the week that it was suspending flights to and from Tel Aviv.

Airlines including Lufthansa, Air France, Transavia and Pegasus canceled all flights to Lebanon, while American Airlines suspended flights from Philadelphia to Doha.

Virgin Atlantic said it would avoid flying over Iraq, meaning flights to and from India, the Maldives and Riyadh could take slightly longer. The airline already was not flying over Iran and said all flights would carry appropriate fuel in case they need to reroute on short notice.

British Airways said flights to Tel Aviv and Bahrain will be suspended until next week, and flights to Amman, Jordan, were canceled Saturday.

"Travelers should anticipate that there will be a lot of disruptions," Harteveldt said. "To be honest, if you haven't left home, chances are you won't be leaving home if you're supposed to travel to or through these destinations for at least several days, if not longer. And if you are returning home, you will have to be very creative about how you get home."

Levy reported from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Funk reported from Omaha, Nebraska. Associated Press writers Adam Schreck in Bangkok, Sam Metz in Ramallah, West Bank, and Melanie Lidman in Jerusalem contributed.

byVincento Seyarto

in

March 01, 2026

Middle East airports closed and thousands of travelers stranded after attack on Iran

LONDON (AP) — Theattack on Iranby the United States and Israel disrupted flights across the Middle East and beyond Saturd...

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Having blasted open a vacuum, there’s no guarantee the US and Israel will like what comes next

Undermining this moment of relief for many repressed Iranians is that killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a perilously simple fix to a very complex problem.

Khamanei's rule was marked by mismanagement, and ultimately ended with one of the more brutal episodes of his trademark repression – the violence his regime meted out to keep power.

His removal has sparkedcelebrations in Tehran, as well as 40 days' official mourning and huge pro-regime crowds – but also a struggle for what remains of the regime to work outwhat comes next.

Israeli officials have hinted the strike was expedited to exploit a daylight window of opportunity when senior Iranian leaders met. And US President Donald Trump appears to have reached again for the Venezuela playbook, suggesting he had a successor in mind – as he did after the capture of Nicolás Maduro, anointing deputy leader Delcy Rodriguez as his preferred interlocutor.

When asked late Saturday, Trump notably declined to say who he thought would play that role in this case. Soon, though, Tehran will have to announce a succession plan.

But Iran is absolutely not as persuadable as Venezuela has been so far.

For 47 years, a theocracy has turned into an autocracy and kleptocracy. A large proportion of the country's more than 90 million people rely on the regime for their livelihood, and a minority have blood on their hands from helping it repress dissent.

When the Assad regime in nearby Syria collapsed in late 2024, its security forces had been hollowed out – and its economy ravaged – by years of civil conflict. Iran's security forces have just had a refresher course in the power of savagery,as they put down January's uprising.

The US and Israel seem united in their assessment that removing the top layer of Iran's regime will leave them in a better place.

As well as Khamenei, defense minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, head of the Iranian Security Council Ali Shamkhani, and commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Mohammad Pakpour were all killed in a matter of hours. This is a security elite just recently reconstituted after the decimating of June's 12-day war.

Who steps in?

But history lacks good examples of air campaigns that have easily toppled regimes and led to replacements that the attackers preferred.

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Hardliners will race to fill the void, simply to survive. They may be reluctant to be next in the US-Israeli crosshairs, but that fear has not led to a shortage of candidates in the past. Is it possible a consensus emerges that, to endure, the autocracy must make peace with the US and the region, and feign moderation for a while?

Perhaps. But that risks projecting the weakness Tehran is so allergic to.

There is no easy replacement government-in-opposition-on-a-box that Trump can promote.

Reza Pahlavi, heir of the long-deposed shah, cannot swan into Tehran and pick up the reins without risking an angry IRGC trying to kill him. There is no opposition really left inside Iran. As in Caracas, any solution will likely have to come from inside the remnants of the regime.

In many ways, missteps by Khamanei have made the US and Israel's job easier. His repression and economic mismanagement mean Iran is in desperate and self-evident need of change, his people yearning to be freer and richer.

His clear orders to retaliate so ferociously to these strikes – carried out, it seems, posthumously – have enraged most of the region, hitting neighbors who had urged the US to back away from strikes, now livid that their civilians have come under Iranian missile and drone attack. Iran seems to keep making itself weaker, but it does not stop.

A momentous risk now is fracture; that no single faction wins out, and patchwork violence and celebration split Iran, leading to a collapse that destabilizes not only the nation, but the region.

Trump's limited attention span and allergy to protracted military involvement simply reinforce this risk. The president lacks the political capital at home, the preparation of his electorate for war, or the resources in theatre to fight this battle for months.

He has also kept his goals slim and achievable. Iran's nuclear program, its missiles, and its ability to harass the US, he can claim, have taken another huge hit. Trump never explicitly declared regime change was his goal – he simply encouraged it. He can declare victory at a moment of his choosing, regardless of what it means for Iran's future.

The superior technology, intelligence and firepower of the United States and Israel enabled them to conjure a swift and simple solution to their enduring Iran problem. But it has yet to address the glaring and perhaps insurmountable complexities of Iran that have kept it a thorn in the United States' side for half a century.

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byVincento Seyarto

in

February 28, 2026

Having blasted open a vacuum, there’s no guarantee the US and Israel will like what comes next

Undermining this moment of relief for many repressed Iranians is that killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a ...

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